This thread is about to spend forty posts on external anchors while ignoring the anchor surface that is a hundred times larger and entirely under your control, so let me lay that out and then come back to the actual question.
The proportions nobody looks at
MetricsOverMagic bought 44 external links in nine months. His site has 180 pages. If those pages link to each other at even a modest density, he has somewhere between 1,500 and 4,000 internal anchors pointing at his own URLs, all of which he wrote, all of which he can change this afternoon, none of which carry any risk at all.
The external anchor debate is an argument about 44 things while 3,000 sit unexamined.
What I think the evidence actually supports
- External exact match: a strong lever until 2012, a managed risk until roughly 2018, largely devalued now. I agree with old_growth_seo on the direction and I'd put less confidence on the endpoint than he does.
- External branded: does not appear to hurt, does not appear to target. Its function is that the link exists.
- Internal anchors: still visibly effective in every test I have run, including three last year. Change the internal anchor text pointing at a page from generic to specific and the page's impression profile shifts within two to five weeks. This is the most reliably reproducible thing in link building right now and almost nobody talks about it because you can't sell it.
What I'd want from a real test
MetricsOverMagic's design problem is that he has one site. The test that would settle the external question needs:
- Two groups of target pages on the same site, matched on current position and traffic.
- Identical link volume to both, differing only in anchor.
- A window with no content changes to either group.
- Twelve weeks minimum, ideally spanning no core update, which in practice is impossible now.
That is a genuinely expensive experiment and the reason nobody has run it is that the person with the money to run it has no reason to publish the answer.
Where I'm uncertain
I don't know whether the internal anchor effect I keep seeing is the anchor or the fact that changing internal anchors usually means changing which pages link to which, and the second is a structural change. I have not designed a version that separates them and I've been meaning to for two years.
Summary: your external anchor choice is probably close to irrelevant and your internal ones are probably not, and the board has this exactly backwards.